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7Rl9?2$YhJ-n 2$we"2$#amiPwD0$2$W3AN g&2$]ȮײK5 (2$ !t\9n*2$2yr@+(5b , 0e0e A@A5%8c8c     ?1d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'p@A)BCD|E?S"@8 R ʚ;1 q8ʚ;g4PdPd@B 0(ppp@ <4!d!dlpC 0? <4ddddlpC 0?  <4BdBdlhG 080___PPT10 ? %;"Risk Based Contingency Estimating##Jay Drye, WSDOT November 2005ZF' ContingenciesqSet up to cover Unforeseen Conditions Additional Work Quantity Overruns Risks that materialize Dispute Resolution&&L&LC%Contingency EstimatingiWSDOT Historically Previously 5% Currently 4% based on audit Programmatic Large Projects utilizing CEVP n* *  D&ProblemsLarge Projects Percentage may not be adequate No way to balance a program Unique Projects How does % relate to risk6;*;* Risk ManagementRisk Management is a systematic approach for making informed decisions while minimizing adverse impacts to project scope, cost, and schedule. Risk Management Focuses on identifying risks and managing their outcomes." What do we do with RM info?The design risk management process identifies, analyzes, assigns and reduces risk where appropriate. Includes minimizing the consequences of adverse events. What about the remaining risk and consequences carried into Construction?   $Quantitative Risk AnalysisAims to analyze numerically the probability of each risk and consequences on project objectives. Inputs: CEVP or CRA results Alternatively Simplified Register Output: Qualitative Risk Based Contingency * I*Evaluate Uncertainty J("Limitations of Simplified Register##(Lower Accuracy for: Low number of Risks High Probability Risks Relies on Probabilistic Data Not Statistically Correct Not Recommended for Opportunities6+Y+Y/ Risk Register"$ 0Risk Based Contingencies $Quantify the risk Better documentation Better programming = meeting commitments Reduce crisis management Higher confidence priorities in construction administration Better Monitoring *Risk Monitoring and Control`Update as project develops Use in Change Order Process Manage Risks to reduce financial impactsaa$>"Tips for Success!Consider all team input in the development of Risk Management and Risk Register. Be realistic about values and risks Monitor efforts to reduce risks "$(/&2EGH  ` ff3f`73̙g` ̙f3fPP̙` 333>?" dd@,? " sd@  d  " s@ d` " n n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>>  z(  xT    "   Hf?"  Nfd?"  TLGAfd?"  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J Z  \ s *A~ Z \ s *AlB \ <D>zrlB \B <D> V clB \ <D> z  \ 68R ; PUncertainty in Activity  Base Durations) )X X  \# X. ,$D 0 \ 6jJ z P Activity A*   Z \ s *>(I \ 6jJ$  P Activity C*   Z \ s *>(H  \ 6jJk  y P Activity B*   Z \ s *> e B \ 633-(d ,$D 0 ;StartZ \ s *> Z \ s *>  B \ 6ŧfX  9End   \# F ,$D 0H v  \#  ,$D 0Z  \ s *A iZ !\ s *A aZv  "\ 6HʧK .Uncertainty in Total Project Cost and DurationL/ %ff3lB #\ <D>xphlB $\ <D>xhx  %\ Nѧ ?" 9$  &\ Npԧ ?"(   9T   @} '\# :,$D 0` (\ 0A ?2F lI ` )\ 0A ?F I N @} *\ @}T P +\# }T xp H ,\# Z -\ s *A 3Z .\ s *A # ] )Z /\ s *A )l 0\ <jJxp HrB 1\ BD>PT P @ 8 2\# P 8 N @ 8 8 3\ @ 8 8Z 4\ s *A  b #rZ 5\ s *A cU }Z 6\ s *A U }l 7\ <jJ@ 8 8rB 8\ BD>P @ @  9\ 6ܧ@# hRisk Events (likelihood of occurrence, and likelihood for cost and duration changes if the event occurs)i i :\ N ?"L   ?Event Y  ;\ N ?" ?Event X B <\ TDjJ?"  p B \ s *IK޽h ?_\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ̙33  ___PPT10 +0D ' = @B Dm ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BB BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*\D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BB BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<* \D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BB BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'\%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*'\D' =%(D' =%(D3' =4@BB BB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*\+$  T$(  Tr T S $@   r T S E 9  H T 0޽h ? ff3f`73̙g80___PPT10. ZK0 #[}(    N ??"< " c 0e0e     P [ #"&}}P  9 Z ??"YP M$135k  @` 8 Z  ??" YP R   @` 7 Zx ??" Y P R   @` 6 Z ??"Y P XRisk Contingency  @` 5 ZT ??"W Y L$30k  @` 4 Z- ??" W Y M$150K  @` 3 Z. ??" W Y K20%  @` 2 Z6 ??"W Y WQuantity Overruns  @` 1 ZE ??" W  L$30k  @` 0 Z`@ ??" W  M$100k  @` / ZV ??" W  K30%  @` . ZW ??" W  \Utility Delays-Impacts  @` - ZY ??"]  L$75k  @` , Zlo ??" ]  M$300k  @` + Zw ??" ]  K25%  @` * ZЀ ??"]  [Unsuitable Excavation  @` )  ` ??"] R Risk Value    @` (  ` ??" ] XMax. Cost Impact  @` '  `\ ??"  ] XRisk Probability  @` &  ` ??" ] R Risk Event    @`B : Zo ??"B ; T1 ??"]]B < T1 ??"  B = T1 ??"W W B > T1 ??"YYB ? Zo ??"PPB @ Zo ??"PB A T1 ??"  PB B T1 ??"  PB C T1 ??"PB D Zo ??"PH  0޽h ? ff3f`73̙gy___PPT10Y+D=' = @B +  $(  r  S    r  S  9  H  0޽h ? ff3f`73̙g  p0(  x  c $   x  c $T 9  H  0޽h ? ̙33  (0(  (x ( c $U   x ( c $U 9  H ( 0޽h ? ff3f`73̙g 0 p(  X  C      S ` @    H  0޽h ? ̙33  0 SK(  X  C    K  S g @   Risk Management: These decisions minimize adverse impacts to project scope, cost, schedule and quality. The decisions are based on identified risks and responses to those risks. Risk Management process can potentially make available a greater variety of risk responses to a greater amount and variety of identified risks. Risk Management process also identifies risk triggers that are crucial to responding to risks. (H  0޽h ? ̙33N% 0 d8^(  8X 8 C     8 S `v @   `*How do other states estimate contigencies. H 8 0޽h ? ̙3380___PPT10.  0 @~D(  DX D C     D S Q @   Introduction Overview Most of you have at least heard of CEVP. Most say that is fine for Mega Projects, but what about small simple projects? 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    On-screen Show CALTRANS Shn : Times New RomanArialMarble Bitmap Image#Risk Based Contingency EstimatingContingenciesContingency EstimatingProblemRisk ManagementWhat do we do with RM info?Quantitative Risk AnalysisEvaluate Uncertainty#Limitations of Simplified Register Risk RegisterRisk Based ContingenciesRisk Monitoring and ControlTips for Success!  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